Using models to interpret scenario storylines
Ryan Blanchard travelled to Montpellier, France to attend the first ScenNet conference. ScenNet refers to the “Biodiversity and Ecosystem Scenarios Network”, funded by the Belmont Forum, and supported by the FRB and bioDISCOVERY, a core project of Future Earth. The following is his report back.
Figure 1: Paul Leadley opening the conference
Scenarios are useful for describing plausible futures and models for translating the developed storylines into projected consequences for biodiversity or ecosystem service provision. Tools such as models and scenarios are useful to: 1) Anticipate future consequences of current/future policy actions, 2) provide key insights to improve decision making, and 3) highlight opportunities needed to reach specified targets. Figure 2 provides an overall summary of the types of scenarios that can be developed. This figure forms part of the IPBES “Summary for policy makers on the methodological assessment report on Scenarios and models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem services”, which was officially launched at the ScenNet conference.
Figure 2: Different types of scenarios
I presented on the application of the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as a potential method for interpreting biodiversity impacts in relation to different land use scenarios. Kate Watermeyer, a fellow South African ScenNet affiliate, presented findings on applying the BII in a marine context.
The quality of the presentations was great (Find a link to the book of abstracts here). Some key things that stood out for me was:
Attempting to meet the Sustainable Development Goals and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets while keeping within the constraints of IPCC limits will be challenging. Generating information from different types of models across multiple scenarios are needed to drive towards the future we want and need.
Manfred Lenzen presented on Teleconnections resulting from increased global trade (outlining where products are produced and ultimately used) and provided some unique insights on global trade patterns and environmental impacts. This highlighted the innovative modelling approaches that are being developed, allowing researchers to answer some interesting questions.
The timing of the conference was appropriate as the IPBES regional and global assessments, which include a focus on scenarios and models, are currently underway. My sense is that most of the research presented at the conference will be vital in this assessment process. It was well worth the effort of attending and I look forward to the next one.
